Peer-Reviewed Journal Details
Mandatory Fields
Galvin, R.,Atanassova, P. A.,Motterlini, N.,Fahey, T.,Dimitrov, B. D.
2014
Bmc Res Notesbmc Res Notes
Long-term risk of stroke after transient ischaemic attack: a hospital-based validation of the ABCD(2) rule
Published
()
Optional Fields
Calibration Demography Female Hospitals Humans Incidence Ischemic Attack, Transient/ complications Male Middle Aged Predictive Value of Tests Reproducibility of Results Risk Factors Stroke/ etiology Time Factors
7
281
BACKGROUND: The ABCD2 clinical prediction rule is a seven point summation of clinical factors independently predictive of stroke risk. The purpose of this cohort study is to validate the ABCD2 rule in a Bulgarian hospital up to three years after TIA. METHODS: All consecutive admissions to an emergency department with symptoms of a first TIA were included. Baseline data and clinical examinations including the ABCD2 scores were documented by neurologists. Discrimination and calibration performance was examined using ABCD2 cut-off scores of >/=3, >/=4 and >/=5 points, consistent with the international guidelines. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to examine calibration between the observed and expected outcomes as predicted by ABCD2 score within the logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Eighty-nine patients were enrolled to the study with a mean age of 63 years (+/- 12 years). Fifty-nine percent (n = 53) of the study population was male. Seven strokes (7.8%) occurred within the first year and six further strokes within the three-year follow-up period. There was no incident of stroke within the first 90 days after TIA. The rule demonstrated good predictive (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.09-2.29) and discriminative performance (AUCROC = 0.72, 95% CI 0.58-0.86), as well as a moderate calibration performance at three years. CONCLUSION: This validation of the ABCD2 rule in a Bulgarian hospital demonstrates that the rule has good predictive and discriminative performance at three years. The ABCD2 is quick to administer and may serve as a useful tool to assist clinicians in the long-term management of individuals with TIA.BACKGROUND: The ABCD2 clinical prediction rule is a seven point summation of clinical factors independently predictive of stroke risk. The purpose of this cohort study is to validate the ABCD2 rule in a Bulgarian hospital up to three years after TIA. METHODS: All consecutive admissions to an emergency department with symptoms of a first TIA were included. Baseline data and clinical examinations including the ABCD2 scores were documented by neurologists. Discrimination and calibration performance was examined using ABCD2 cut-off scores of >/=3, >/=4 and >/=5 points, consistent with the international guidelines. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to examine calibration between the observed and expected outcomes as predicted by ABCD2 score within the logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Eighty-nine patients were enrolled to the study with a mean age of 63 years (+/- 12 years). Fifty-nine percent (n = 53) of the study population was male. Seven strokes (7.8%) occurred within the first year and six further strokes within the three-year follow-up period. There was no incident of stroke within the first 90 days after TIA. The rule demonstrated good predictive (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.09-2.29) and discriminative performance (AUCROC = 0.72, 95% CI 0.58-0.86), as well as a moderate calibration performance at three years. CONCLUSION: This validation of the ABCD2 rule in a Bulgarian hospital demonstrates that the rule has good predictive and discriminative performance at three years. The ABCD2 is quick to administer and may serve as a useful tool to assist clinicians in the long-term management of individuals with TIA.
1756-0500 (Electronic) 17
2014/06/03
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013429/pdf/1756-0500-7-281.pdfhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013429/pdf/1756-0500-7-281.pdf
10.1186/1756-0500-7-281
Grant Details